# Supply Chain Disruption 2026: Protect Your Saudi Inventory
*Logistics hedging and supplier management strategies in the middle of today's global events*

> **In short:** A practical guide to global shipping disruption for Saudi SMEs: reorder points, supplier scorecards, Zakat on safety stock and import VAT deferral.

- **URL:** https://www.snad.io/en/blog/global-supply-chain-crisis-2026-impact
- **Arabic original:** https://www.snad.io/blog/global-supply-chain-crisis-2026-impact
- **Category:** Guides — Business & Inventory Management
- **Tags:** Supply Chains, Supplier Management, Shipping Crises, Inventory, Snad
- **Published:** 2026-05-10
- **Updated:** 2026-08-02
- **Publisher:** Snad (snad.io)

The world is now so interconnected that a blockage in one waterway, or political turmoil on another continent, can hold up your goods for weeks before they reach your warehouse in Saudi Arabia. In 2026, with freight and energy costs still swinging, 'securing inventory' has become a challenge for every owner of a small or medium business. Ordering goods only once they run out is no longer enough; you need a proactive strategy. In this article we look at the global events under way and how they hit the local market, and explain how Snad helps you manage suppliers and anticipate demand before the crisis arrives.

## Supply chains in 2026: why have costs risen?

Global shipping lanes are under unprecedented pressure, pushing container prices up and delivery dates out. For a Saudi trader importing raw materials or finished products, that means liquidity frozen for longer in goods still at sea. This is exactly where accounting precision earns its keep: the final product cost has to reflect every one of those increases in freight and insurance. In Snad you can record shipping expenses and customs duties separately within the procurement cycle and follow them in expense reports and the financial statements, so you keep a clear view of the real product cost and set a sound profit margin.

## Reorder point: the safety fence around your business

With shipping delayed, the old 'minimum stock level' no longer does the job. If a shipment used to arrive in 30 days and now takes 60 days, your ordering formula has to change immediately. Snad lets you set inventory alerts automatically. When a given item drops to a risk level, the system sends you a notification. That automation prevents the out-of-stock situations that can hand your customers to competitors who prepared better.

## Diversifying suppliers: do not put all your eggs in one basket

Global events have proved that depending on a single supplier in a single country is commercial suicide. The current direction of travel is multi-sourcing. In the procurement module in Snad you can manage the files of different sourcing offices and factories, compare their prices, and track the quality of what they deliver. Holding a database of local suppliers as a fallback for the importer in an emergency is what separates the company that keeps trading from the company that stops because one spare part or one simple raw material ran out.

## Moving from 'just in time' to 'just in case'

For years the world followed the Just-in-Time model to cut storage costs. Today the model has shifted to Just-in-Case: holding a larger safety stock to absorb surprises. That calls for warehouse space and very tight management to avoid spoilage. Using Snad, you can run multiple warehouses and track the movement of every item precisely, which balances your need to secure inventory against your fear of inflating the operating cost of the warehouses.

## The Zakat impact of safety stock: the cost that never appears in a warehouse report

The decision to move to precautionary inventory is not only logistical, it is also a Zakat decision. Article 52 of the Implementing Regulations for Zakat Collection — issued by Minister of Finance Resolution No. (1007) dated 19 Sha'ban 1445H and applied to financial years beginning after 1 January 2024 — provides that inventory does not count as a deductible element from the Zakat base except in two specific cases. In other words, every extra SAR you hold as goods held for sale stays inside the base.

The Zakat rate is two and a half percent (2.5%) of the Zakat base for the Hijri year, and where the Zakat year differs from the Hijri year the calculation runs on actual days under Article 15.

| Inventory line | Treatment under the Implementing Regulations for Zakat Collection 1445H |
|---|---|
| Goods held for sale | Not a deductible element — even before manufacturing is complete |
| Materials that form part of the finished product | Not a deductible element |
| Materials not held for sale, such as spare parts | A deductible element |
| Raw materials classified as current assets and not part of the finished product | A deductible element, on condition of the add-back from current liabilities |

The operational takeaway: piling up goods held for sale is heavier in Zakat terms than holding operational spare parts. Separate the two classifications in [inventory](/inventory) before your financial year end, and size the impact with the [inventory Zakat calculator](/tools/finance/zakat-inventory-calculator).

## Paying import VAT through the tax return instead of at customs release

The heaviest part of importing under pressure is cash leaving before the goods arrive. Article 44 of the Implementing Regulations of the VAT Law allows a taxable person to apply to the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA) for authorisation to pay the tax on imports through the tax return, instead of it being collected at customs release.

| Approval condition (Article 44) | What it means in practice |
|---|---|
| Using the monthly tax period and intending to import goods at least once a month | The facility is built for the regular importer, not the occasional shipment |
| Proving that all returns and amounts paid over the last twelve months were made on time, and meeting the remaining VAT obligations | A clean compliance record for a full year before you apply |
| Providing sufficient evidence of a stable and settled financial position | Financial statements ready to hand, not justifications |

The tax period is monthly for those whose annual taxable supplies exceed SAR 40 million (40,000,000) during the previous twelve months, and three months for everyone else; those below that threshold may apply to use the monthly period under Article 58. Payment falls due no later than the last day of the month following the end of the tax period under Article 59. ZATCA may reject the application or cancel an existing authorisation whenever it sees a risk of non-payment.

## Customs duty suspension arrangements: deferring the liability until the goods leave

If your plan rests on a larger precautionary inventory, Article 32 (bis) of the VAT Implementing Regulations — added by Board of Directors Resolution No. (01-06-24) dated 19 November 2024 — changes the timing arithmetic.

The tax due on the import of goods placed under one of the customs duty suspension arrangements is suspended once the suspension conditions set out in the Unified Customs Law are met, and the tax becomes due when the goods leave customs suspension. The supply of goods into one of those arrangements, and their supply within them, is also subject to the zero percent rate, and goods leaving them to a destination outside the territory of the Council states are treated as exports.

The benefit collapses when the documents are missing: the Regulations require the taxable person to retain all documents proving the location of the goods at the time of supply, along with proof of their movement and their placement under the suspension arrangements. Link the customs declaration number to the purchase order and the warehouse inside [procurement](/purchases) from day one, not at the first audit.

## The supplier scorecard: four metrics computed from purchase orders

Diversifying suppliers without measurement simply reproduces the same problem under new names. Open a scorecard for each supplier, computed from the purchase order data itself rather than from impressions:

| Metric | How it is calculated | What it reveals |
|---|---|---|
| On-time performance | Orders received on their due date ÷ total orders | If it falls, the lead time configured in your system is wrong |
| Lead-time variability | Longest actual lead time − average lead time | This, not the average, is what sets the size of your safety stock |
| Shipment completeness | Quantities received ÷ quantities ordered | Repeated partial delivery doubles purchase orders and shipping costs |
| Receiving quality | Value of returns for defects ÷ value received | A low-priced supplier with high returns is more expensive in the end |

The second metric is the decisive one in a volatile year. Safety stock is built on lead-time variability, not on its average, and any rise in that variability lifts the point at which you have to order. Recalculate the point after every three shipments with the [reorder point calculator](/tools/inventory/reorder-point-calculator), and lock it into the system instead of leaving it in the storekeeper's memory.

## Classify items by the impact of a stockout, not by purchase value

Ranking items by purchase value alone hides the real risk: a low-cost item can halt an entire production line or block the delivery of a large order. Add a second dimension to every item:

- Impact of a stockout: does it stop the sale, delay it, or does it have an immediate substitute?
- Depth of alternatives: how many approved suppliers do you actually have for this item, not how many exist in the market?
- Length of the lead time and how much it varies.
- Speed of obsolescence: precautionary stock of a fast-obsolescing item turns into a loss, not protection.

The items that combine 'high impact + single supplier + long lead time' are the only ones that justify expanded inventory and the Zakat and storage cost that comes with it. The rest are run on a properly set reorder point and a realistic minimum level. Review the classification every quarter, because an item's position shifts when its supplier changes, not when the item itself changes.

## Frequently asked questions

### How does Snad help me account for high import costs?

Through the feature that allocates additional costs across the purchase invoice, which raises the unit cost automatically and protects your profit margin.

### Does extra safety stock increase my company's Zakat?

In most cases, yes. Under Article 52 of the Implementing Regulations for Zakat Collection (1445H), inventory does not count as a deductible element from the Zakat base, and goods held for sale or materials that form part of the finished product are not deductible elements even before manufacturing is complete. By contrast, materials not held for sale — spare parts, for example — are deductible elements, as are raw materials classified as current assets that are not part of the finished product, on condition of the add-back from current liabilities. The Zakat impact therefore varies with the type of inventory you are stockpiling.

### Can I pay VAT on imports through my tax return instead of paying it at customs release?

Yes, by application and approval. Article 44 of the Implementing Regulations of the VAT Law allows you to apply to the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (ZATCA) for authorisation to pay the tax on imports through your tax return instead of it being collected at customs release. ZATCA may approve if you use the monthly tax period and intend to import at least once a month, if you prove that all your returns and paid amounts over the last twelve months were made on time along with meeting the remaining VAT obligations, and if you provide sufficient evidence that your financial position is stable. ZATCA may reject the application or cancel the authorisation where there is a risk of non-payment.

### My annual supplies are under SAR 40 million — can I use the monthly tax period?

Yes, by application. Under Article 58 of the Implementing Regulations of the VAT Law, the tax period is monthly for those whose annual taxable supplies exceed SAR 40 million during the previous twelve months, and three months for everyone else, while those whose supplies do not exceed that amount may apply to ZATCA to use the monthly period. Where the application is approved, it takes effect from the beginning of the tax period following the period in which the approval was granted.

### When does VAT become due on goods placed under a customs duty suspension arrangement?

The tax due on the import of goods placed under one of the customs duty suspension arrangements is suspended once the suspension conditions set out in the Unified Customs Law are met, and the tax becomes due when the goods leave customs suspension, in line with Article 32 (bis) of the VAT Implementing Regulations. You are required to retain the documents proving the location of the goods at the time of supply, together with proof of their movement and their placement under the suspension arrangements.

### What is the VAT rate on imports, and how is the value of imported goods determined?

The standard VAT rate is 15% as of 1 July 2020, per the guideline issued by ZATCA on the amendment of the standard rate. Article 18 of the VAT Law provides that the tax rate due is the rate applicable on the date of supply or on the date of import, while Article 15 provides that the value of imported goods is determined in accordance with the provisions laid down in the Unified Customs Law.

### My cash flow is stuck because of shipment delays — is there a formal option to pay the tax in instalments?

Yes. ZATCA provides an electronic service called 'VAT instalment plan' that lets you request payment in instalments when you face difficulty paying the full amounts due. The service is available to those registered for VAT, carries no fee, has a processing time of 20 working days, and requires you to file all returns due, pay a first instalment, and submit bank statements for the last three months together with an explanation of the grounds for the request.

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## About the publisher
**Snad (سند)** — a private Saudi software company
based in Riyadh, founded 2025. Legal form: Sole proprietorship.
Commercial registration: 7038154642
VAT number: 310959226500003
Only official domain: snad.io
> Snad is a private commercial business-management platform. It is not a
> government body, not a bank, and not a government services portal, and it
> is not affiliated with any government entity. Any site or app with a
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